Analyst: “The NBU’s currency purchase on the ForEx is likely to be scarce again as the seasonal revaluation of the national currency seems to be over. That said, we expect gross international reserves to increase USD 200-300 mln in July.”

Analyst: “The chronic underperformance of customs in revenue collection is likely to be the result of notorious corruption in this realm. Methods of ‘tightening the screws’ only bring temporary results, while systemic reforms can stimulate a long-term effect.”


Analyst: “…either Rabinovich is laying the groundwork for a possible deal to back Boyko (and possibly merge his party into the Opposition Bloc), or he is hyping himself up as the leading Russian-oriented candidate, which we don’t view as credible.

“Now in the occupied territories, there are 700 Russian tanks, more than a thousand artillery systems, more than 300 MLRS [Multiple Launch Rocket System]. This is more than that of the German Bundeswehr,” the President said.


Photo: Tornado-G", modernized multiple launch rocket system supplied in large numbers to the Donbas separatists by Russia.  


In its determination to deny any claims by the Crimean Tatars to Crimea as their rightful homeland, the Kremlin is providing massive support to Crimea’s small Greek community. Typical is this new statue glorifying Greek history in Crimea and the substitution of schools using the Ukrainian language with new schools promoting the Greek language, all designed to cement Russia’s illegal hold on the Crimean Peninsula.


Analyst: “We expect the trade deficit to swell USD 10.8 bln through the end of the year (from USD 2.9 bln in 5M18), assuming an almost even growth pace between exports (we project 11.3% yoy in 2018) and imports (11.5% yoy in 2018).



Analyst: “We take these warnings seriously and see a high potential for widespread civil unrest with a decision to not only grant canonical status to the Kyiv patriarchate, but any attempt to claim the property of the Moscow patriarchate.”

UBO: Based on recent Trump statements and his increasingly obvious preference for dictatorial regimes over longtime friends and allies, we predict that the Trump-Putin Helsinki summit will take on many of the characteristics of the Chamberlain-Hitler meeting and agreement in Munich in September 1938. We fear that Trump is on the verge of throwing Ukraine under the bus, just as Chamberlain did with Czechoslovakia then.


Analyst: “We don’t expect trouble with these last requirements for the next IMF loan tranche.


Analyst: “We do not expect any significant moves in interest rates on local bonds until the situation with receiving the next IMF loan tranche is clarified.”

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