Mr. Putin sends a man with a message

2013/6/15 14:00:25

A top Russian presidential advisor gives the Yanukovych forces an unmistakable message that their plan for a foot in the EU and a foot in the Customs Union is just a dream with no basis in reality


News and opinion from Ukraine Business Online

 

KYIV, June 15, 2013 (UBO) – The Ukrainian Government launched the 1st International Annual Business Conference as a major event that would be – in the government’s words -- an important tool for the development of international economic cooperation, an effective search for business partners, active involvement of foreign investment, establishing a fruitful dialogue between the government and business as well as presenting the economic potential of Ukraine.

 

In organizing the event the government signed up just about every major national and international business organization and representatives of a lot of foreign governments to sing the praises of Ukraine as a foreign direct investment venue.

 

However, we’re not sure the government was prepared for the very sharp message delivered to the conference by one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top aides – no doubt with the blessing of Russia’s top leader.

 

What made the message resound through the conference with such clarity is that it was in absolute contravention of the seemingly endless messages from President Yanukovych, Prime Minister Azarov and a stream of ministers that Ukraine’s signing of an Association Agreement with the European Union and Ukraine’s so-called 3+1 involvement in the Customs Union and the future Eurasian Economic Union is compatible.

 

No lack of clarity in the message

 

Speaking to the conference on Friday, Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev [photo] said, "If Ukraine signs this agreement (Association Agreement with the EU), it will not be able to participate in the Customs Union.”

 

Glazyev further added that Ukraine cannot get the status of observer in the Eurasian Economic Union, which must be launched in 2015. "The observer status, which we plan to take into account when forming the legal framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, will be granted only to those countries, which have expressed the willingness and desire to join the Eurasian Economic Union. This is how we see the status of observer - as the first step towards a joint effort to participate in the integration movement."

 

The advisor to the Russian president believes that Ukraine and Russia will be able to be together in the Customs Union and the future Eurasian Economic Union "only in the event Russia signs exactly the same agreement with the European Union." However, the terms of such an agreement, according to Glazyev, are "unacceptable" because they are, in his opinion, "unequal" and "discriminatory."

 

The Putin advisor also eliminates the possibility of Ukraine's cooperation with the Customs Union according to the 3+1 formula, as he believes that Ukraine "will perform the directives of Brussels….The implementation of the formula 3+1, put forward by Viktor Yanukovych, suggests that Ukraine is an independent partner. If Ukraine delegates its trade policy powers to the European Union and fulfills the directives of Brussels, in the development of which it cannot even take part, Brussels rather than Kyiv will be our partner in this aspect.”

 

Quo vadis, Ukraina?

 

Presidential aides worldwide interested in keeping their jobs do not misrepresent the views of those they serve, and we have no reason to doubt the words of Russian presidential advisor Glazyev correctly represented the views of the Russian president.

 

Ukraine’s leadership has dithered for months, hoping that some formula could be found to keep both options open. Glazyev’s statements would seem to put to rest any illusions and suggest that the time has come for Ukraine to make the hard decision about moving West or East.

 

Either option carries with it benefits and challenges but polls have repeatedly shown that a majority of Ukrainian citizens – particularly the younger ones – prefer the Association Agreement and the possibility of eventual European Union membership to the other option that comes down to buying into Vladimir Putin’s reconstruction of the nearest thing he can manage to a Russia-centric approximation of the Soviet Union.

 

The decision is in the hands of President Viktor Yanukovych. However, the timing of the decision is in other hands – and there are not years, but only months and perhaps even just weeks before that decision must be made.

 

Jim Davis

 

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