Putting Russian support of Syria’s Asad regime in perspective

2013/6/8 11:41:53

The next time you see horrible pictures of death and destruction coming out of Syria, remember that the war there is not just about the survival of the Bashar al-Asad regime, it is also about Russia’s massive support to that regime in hopes of hanging on to its base at Tartus, the preferred future home of a Russian Mediterranean naval squadron.

 


Commentary from Ukraine Business Online

 

KYIV, May 3, 2013 (UBO) – Of all the world’s trouble spots, none is of greater concern today than the rebellion – perhaps better described now as a civil war – in Syria. The matter is immensely complicated but many observers believe it comes down to a geopolitical battle being fought out by primarily by governments in Damascus, Tel Aviv, Moscow, and Washington with a passive but important role for Kyiv.

 

To understand Russia’s intense and growing support for the Assad regime in Syria, all you need do is refer to a quote earlier this year by Andrei Smirnov of the Voice of Russia who said, “The Russian Mediterranean squadron is to be provided with comprehensive logistical support but at present the only Russian base and naval facility abroad is the Syrian port of Tartus.”

 

The political and military leaders in Russia know full well that should those currently fighting the incumbent regime in Syria come to power, one of their first acts would be to expel Russia from its facilities at Tartus, meaning that support for any Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean would have to depend up the Russian Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol in Ukraine.

 

Loss of Tartus would be a severe blow for Russian plans that currently envision a permanent presence in the Mediterranean Sea by deploying an operational formation of the Russian Navy in the region by 2015.

 

According to the General Staff, the planned Med squadron would consist of ships from the Black Sea, Northern and Baltic Fleets and would operate based on the pattern of the old Fifth Operational Squadron of the former USSR Navy.

 

Anyone who doubts that a new Cold War could be in the making only has to remember that during the Soviet era the Fifth Operational Squadron operated as a counterbalance to the Sixth Fleet of the US Navy. Many in the Russian Navy today, particularly those whose service goes back to Soviet times, rue the day only a year after the collapse of the Soviet Union, on the 31st of December 1992, the Fifth Squadron was disbanded.

 

Mediterranean core of all essential dangers to Russia’s national interests

 

During a visit to the Black Sea Fleet on February 20 this year the Russian Defence Minister stressed that the Mediterranean region was the core of all essential dangers to Russia’s national interests. While he went on to say that the Russian Navy would fulfil tasks in all parts of the world’s oceans, his statement that the Med is central to all dangers to Russian national interests was perhaps a foreshadowing of what we are seeing in Syria today as Russian planes and ships provide the lifeline that keeps Bashar al-Asad in power.

 

Russian thinking in regard to Syria is not only a matter of geopolitics, it also a major issue of budgetary concern. Rebuilding a major naval presence in the Mediterranean would be a costly venture at best, requiring comprehensive logistical support. Costs that would be massive even with preservation of the Russian naval facility at Tartus would be even more costly – and less satisfactory – if Tartus were lost and support had to be managed through the Turkish Dardanelles from the RBSF base in Sevastopol in Ukraine’s Crimea.

 

The Russian Navy is already taking a very substantial part of Russia’s defense budget as it updates fleets that had deteriorated since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

Some parts of the Russian power structure see the rebuilding of the existing fleets as more important than the ambitious Russian Mediterranean squadron project. However, since the Kremlin sees the Med squadron as a top priority, the Navy saluted and made plans as directed.  

 

An adviser of the chief of the General Staff, former and former Commander of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Igor Kasatonov said: “All this will entail huge costs. From the geopolitical viewpoint, we need this squadron, it is the right decision. As a result, the government will have to exert itself to set up this formation similar to the Fifth Soviet Navy Squadron.”

 

The exertions of the government include the most ambitious ship building program since the Cold War, with some of the earliest results being reflected in the Black Sea Fleet, soon to be augmented by three diesel-electric submarines and three frigates.

 

Although there have been no public revelations of just what activation of a Russian Med Squadron might be, the operational planning for such a squadron has been in place for years. Not only that, the General Staff reported that coordinated action on the future Mediterranean squadron was practised during the Russian naval exercises in the region in January of this year.

 

Anyone looking for a cheerleader for the Med squadron has to look no further than some of the media that follows Russian military arms sales. For example, the Voice of Russia quoted the editor-in-chief of The Arms Exports magazine Andrey Frolov as saying: “I believe that first of all this would be showing the Russian flag and highlighting Russia’s ambitions on an international level. This would be the proof that after 20 years Russia has regained what the USSR possessed. Finally, this would give us an opportunity to faster respond to any moves. It often happened in the past that it took ships 4-5 days to leave the port in Sevastopol and reach their destination, while events could develop much faster.”

 

Conclusion

 

The next time you see horrible pictures of death and destruction coming out of Syria, remember that the war there is not just about the survival of the Bashar al-Asad regime, it is also about Russia’s massive support to that regime in hopes of hanging on to its base at Tartus, the preferred future home of a Russian Mediterranean naval squadron.

 

Jim Davis

 

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