NBU estimates Ukraine GDP growth at 3.2% yoy in 2Q18

2018/7/20 16:56:21

Analyst: “So far, the NBU’s projections are based on the assumption that Ukraine will secure the next IMF loan tranche of around USD 1.9 bln by the end of 2018.”

 


KYIV, July 20, 2018 - Ukraine’s GDP increased 3.2% yoy in 2Q18, Concorde Capital informed clients based on National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates in the 2Q18 inflation report published on the NBU web site on July 19. This growth was driven by domestic consumer and investment demand. The NBU report also cited the factor of a low comparative base in 2Q17, when economic activities with Ukraine’s uncontrolled territories were halted.

 

The central bank reiterated its forecast for GDP growth of 3.4% yoy in 2018 and 2.9 yoy% in 2020. At the same time, it revised downward its projection for GDP in 2019 to 2.5% yoy growth from 2.9% yoy.

 

The NBU improved its projection for core inflation in 2018 to 7.1% yoy (from 7.7% yoy in the previous report), while keeping unchanged its forecast for consumer inflation at 8.9% yoy.

 

The inflation report also reflected the downward revision of gross international reserves at end-2018 to USD 20.7 bln from USD 21.6 bln, which was reported earlier while announcing the increase of the NBU’s key policy rate by 0.5pp to 17.5%.

 

Concorde analyst Evgeniya Akhtyrko added: “The NBU is being consistent with promoting the idea that the current tight monetary policy will have a negative impact on economic growth in 2019. Therefore, the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 was revised downward in line with the regulator’s decision to hike the key policy rate last week.

 

So far, the NBU’s projections are based on the assumption that Ukraine will secure the next IMF loan tranche of around USD 1.9 bln by the end of 2018. Should this fail, we are likely to see a significant deterioration in the forecast in the NBU’s inflation report in October.”

 

###

 

For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua 

 

Printer Friendly Page Send this Story to a Friend Create a PDF from the article