Russia can interfere in Ukraine election in five ways, expert says

2018/6/21 23:59:34

Analyst: “We agree with Vorobiov’s position that Russia needs a political solution to retake control of Ukraine, given that its military attempt has failed. And the Russians know full well that the 2019 elections will be as good a chance as any to bring Ukraine back into its geopolitical orbit, or to dissolve Ukrainian statehood altogether.”

 

Photo: Captured Russian military hardware on display in Kyiv in 2015


KYIV, June 21, 2018 - The Russian government can interfere in Ukraine’s 2019 presidential elections scheduled for March 2019 in five scenarios, Concorde Capital informed clients based on an essay published by the Atlantic Council on June 18 that was authored by Mykola Vorobiov, a fellow at Johns Hopkins University. They include: (1) backing a Russian candidate, (2) heightening military tensions in Donbas to spread panic and distrust of the Ukrainian government, (3) cyberattacks and email hacking, (4) organizing a coup of paramilitaries and nationalists and (5) organizing the latest maidan protest. “These scenarios may sound far-fetched, but the Kremlin will use all means possible to make Ukraine a ‘failed state’ and bring it back to Russia’s sphere of influence once and for all,” Vorobiov wrote.

 

Concorde analyst Zenon Zawada added: “These scenarios are not the least bit far-fetched as we have been warning of Russian President Putin using the war in Donbas to influence the 2019 elections for many months now. We are confident that Russia will pursue the first three tactics. While we don’t believe another Maidan is possible (with outdoor tents and soup kitchens), we believe there is a high risk that President Poroshenko will be tempted to engage in vote fraud to ensure his re-election. Accusations of vote fraud are already baked into the cake, but it’s still a question of whether these claims will be limited to press conferences, or manifest themselves in street protests.

 

“We agree with Vorobiov’s position that Russia needs a political solution to retake control of Ukraine, given that its military attempt has failed. And the Russians know full well that the 2019 elections will be as good a chance as any to bring Ukraine back into its geopolitical orbit, or to dissolve Ukrainian statehood altogether. This is especially the case with plummeting living standards and a vacuum of trusted political leaders. Therefore, we expect the Kremlin will try every tactic at its disposal to ‘solve’ its “Ukraine problem” in 2019, ‘once and for all,’ as Vorobiov correctly put it.

 

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For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua 

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