Donbas warfare to continue for year at least, Volker says

2017/11/30 23:06:48

Analyst: “Volker’s comment that the U.S. won’t accept any Russian peacekeepers all but eliminates any hope for that method of resolving the conflict, which we never expected to be successful anyhow.


 

 

 

 

 

 

KYIV, Nov 30, 2017 - The warfare in Donbas will likely continue for at least a year, Concorde Capital informed clients in an online advisory today. The information was based on an interview given by U.S. Special Representative to Ukraine Kurt Volker gave to the politico.com news site on Nov. 27. When asked to estimate the likelihood of the warfare continuing, he said “at least 80%.” Volker confirmed that the Russians rejected 26 out of 29 points to resolve the conflict during a Nov. 13 meeting with his counterpart Vladislav Surkov, which he called a step back.

 

“I don’t know what the next step after this is,” he said. “It could be that that happened for completely other reasons having nothing to do with Ukraine, just where we are in our U.S.-Russian relationship. It could have had to do with the lack of a bilateral meeting between President Putin and President Trump,” Volker said, adding that his next meeting with Surkov will occur in December.

 

The same day the politico.com interview was published, the Washington Post reported that Volker said the U.S. government won’t support the presence of Russian citizens in a UN peacekeeping force in Donbas.

 

Concorde analyst Zenon Zawada added: “It’s refreshing to see that Volker isn’t offering any optimistic spin about the warfare ending before the 2019 elections in Ukraine. The warfare will be a useful tool for Putin to influence the vote. Meanwhile, Volker’s comment that the U.S. won’t accept any Russian peacekeepers all but eliminates any hope for that method of resolving the conflict, which we never expected to be successful anyhow.

 

Here’s our most likely scenario for the Donbas conflict European legislative bodies gradually relax sanctions over the next few years, owing to the rise of Far Right parties (fueled by an ongoing flood of migrants and related terrorist attacks) and a desire by European businessmen to make up for lost trade with Russia. Meanwhile, a Russian-oriented parliamentary opposition emerges in the Ukrainian parliament as a result of the vote in October 2019.

 

Realizing the tide in Europe is turning towards Putin, U.S. policymakers opt for a frozen conflict in Donbas (on a de facto basis) as the best solution to a messy situation. Though U.S. sanctions will remain in place, Russia will not budge from Donbas or Crimea.

 

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For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua

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