Ukraine consumer prices slow to 1.2% m/m growth in October

2017/11/9 23:51:11

Analyst: “October’s high CPI promises further monetary tightening in Ukraine in the coming months, with a possible upward revision of the central bank’s key rate by up to another 1pp in December as inflation is above its projected trajectory.”

 


KYIV, Nov 9, 2017 - Ukraine's consumer prices slowed to 1.2% m/m growth (14.6% yoy) in October from 2.0% m/m (16.4% yoy) in the prior month, Concorde Capital informed clients based a State Statistics Service report on Nov. 8. The main sources of inflation are prices for food (1.1% m/m), transportation (2.4% m/m), clothing and footwear (2.4% m/m), and alcohol and tobacco (1.3% m/m). Price growth for all core CPI components slowed except for transportation (2.4% m/m from 1.5% m/m in September), healthcare (1.0% m/m vs. 0.5% m/m) and utilities (0.5% m/m vs. 0.4% m/m).

 

In 10M17, Ukraine’s CPI grew 11.5% YTD.

 

Concorde analyst Alexander Paraschiy added: “Inflation eased but much less than our expectation of October CPI falling below 1% m/m. The high October inflation means that the central bank’s CPI forecast of 12.2% for 2017 is too optimistic. To not exceed this annual level, CPI needs to slow sharply to 0.3% m/m growth in November-December, which is highly unlikely. So far, we are keeping our 2017 CPI forecast unchanged at 12.6% YTD with near 0.5% m/m monthly inflation in the last two months of the year. However, we should be ready to see CPI close to the 13% YTD mark by December. October’s high CPI promises further monetary tightening in Ukraine in the coming months, with a possible upward revision of the central bank’s key rate by up to another 1pp in December as inflation is above its projected trajectory.

 

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For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua 

 

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