Russian Kerch Bridge will significantly harm Ukrainian trade, study says

2017/9/4 13:13:44

Analyst: “The more the Azov region suffers economically, which is promised with the bridge’s completion, the more its residents – already Russian-oriented culturally and politically – will be convinced of the need to realign themselves with Russia.”

 


KYIV, Sep 4, 2017 - Russia’s current bridge construction across the Kerch Strait, connecting the mainland with the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula, will hurt significantly Ukraine’s international trade, Concorde Capital informed clients based on a study performed by the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies in Kyiv. The new bridge – which the Russian Transport Ministry expects will be opened in 2018 – will restrict ship traffic in the Black and Azov seas, incur reduced trade and economic damage to Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdiansk, and cause socio-economic risks of stagnation in Ukraine’s Azov region, which includes the Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, said the study, as reported by epravda.com.ua news site on Sep. 3.

 

The bridge’s low height will significantly restrict access to the Azov seas for many Ukrainian ships, potentially causing a loss of up to 43% of traffic of the Mariupol Sea Port, among Ukraine’s biggest. That would threaten about one million tons of Ukrainian-produced cast iron under contract with American clients, the study said, with even more potential damage to Ukraine’s metallurgical industry as a whole. The mere construction efforts will block traffic at a cost of USD 20,000 per day, affecting between 70 and 90 ships per day, the study said. The Russian government began blocking traffic through the strait completely on Aug. 9, with plans to reopen only one-way traffic during construction. The Ukrainian government alleges the bridge is illegal and is preparing a complaint for international litigation.

 

Concorde analyst Zenon Zawada added: “Russia is fighting its war with Ukraine on all levels military, political, cultural, information, and in this case, economic. A lawsuit is a logical step, but it will achieve little in practical terms. The more the Azov region suffers economically, which is promised with the bridge’s completion, the more its residents – already Russian-oriented culturally and politically – will be convinced of the need to realign themselves with Russia.

 

It’s the Kremlin’s strategy for the 2019 elections to regain the support of southeast Ukraine, whose voters work in industries that had Russian enterprises as their biggest clients. The Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc will be ready to gather those votes with the hopes of forming a parliamentary majority, if not a strong Russian-oriented opposition with other Russian-oriented parties.

 

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For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua 

 

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