Ukraine grain harvest to fall 5%-9% yoy this year, ministry says

2017/8/8 11:42:19

Analyst: “We estimate that a 4% total harvest drop in 2H17 will shave off about 0.2pp of GDP growth for the year. If our projections come to reality, GDP growth will be 1.7% yoy in 2017 compared to 1.9% yoy we estimated previously.”

 


KYIV, Aug 8, 2017 - Ukraine's grain harvest for the 2017/18 marketing year will be 60.2-63.0 mmt, a decline of 4.5%-8.8% yoy from 66.0 mmt, Concorde Capital informed clients based on an Aug. 4 forecast produced by Ukraine's agrarian policy ministry.

 

As of Aug. 4, Ukrainian farmers harvested 30.9 mmt of early grains, an 11.7% yoy drop, at an average yield of 3.74 tha, a 3.6% yoy fall. This was collected from 8.2 mln hectares, or 85% of the total acreage of early grains.

 

Concorde analyst Alexander Paraschiy added – “We believe the ministry’s forecast is too conservative, given that yields of early grains are only slightly smaller yoy, and the harvest of corn, the crop that contributes most to total figures, has yet to start. In our view, the total harvest decline will be in the range of 3%-4% yoy. But even such a decline will have a negative impact on macroeconomic statistics in 2H17.

 

“We estimate that a 4% total harvest drop in 2H17 will shave off about 0.2pp of GDP growth for the year. If our projections come to reality, GDP growth will be 1.7% yoy in 2017 compared to 1.9% yoy we estimated previously.”

 

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For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua

 

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