Russia’s Next Move on Ukraine

2016/9/27 17:40:13

The most likely scenario for eastern Ukraine is that a low-level conflict will continue to simmer. Moscow needs to give up its pipe dream that a pro-Russian government will come to power in Kiev, and forget its convenient but misleading stereotypes about its large neighbor. 

 


By Dmitri Trenin, Carnegie – Moscow Center

 

Russia’s Ukraine policy is in the spotlight once again over the fragile ceasefire in the Donbas and talk of resurrecting the so-called Normandy format negotiations between the leaders and foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Moscow should realize that Kiev’s anti-Russian stance is here to stay, and reassess its long-term policy regarding its neighbor accordingly.

 

Right now, the main topic of discussion is the implementation of Minsk II, as the agreement reached in the Belarusian capital in February 2015 is known. However, it is unlikely that the agreement will be fully carried out. Minsk II mostly suits Russia, but it hardly does Kiev. Implementation of the agreement would mean autonomy for the Donbas and de facto constitutional regionalization of Ukraine, which would effectively preclude Kiev from even applying for NATO membership. It would legitimize a Russian enclave in the Donbas and provide amnesty for leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, and it would transfer responsibility for the welfare of the region’s more than one million people from Moscow to Kiev.

 

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed the Minsk accords under strong pressure from Europe, in particular Germany, which feared that the armed conflict would spread and result in a major war in Europe’s east. However, there is a big difference between signing an agreement and announcing a ceasefire on the one hand, and implementing the agreement and resolving the conflict on the other. The current Ukrainian authorities simply cannot fully comply with Minsk II without precipitating a major domestic crisis that would jeopardize the stability of the regime itself.

 

Berlin and Paris are powerless to effectively pressure Kiev, and Washington is unwilling to do so. The continued confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and the tension in Russia-EU relations help the United States to contain Russia and increase demand for U.S. leadership in the Old World.

 

So while Moscow and the European capitals have no reason to reject Minsk II, Kiev will openly resist it, citing Moscow’s military assistance to Donetsk and Luhansk and constant shelling along the line of contact. Not to forget there are also those in the Donbas who are less than enthusiastic about reintegration with Ukraine and who occasionally also trigger skirmishes.

 

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http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/09 ... next-move-on-ukraine/j60e

 

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