How Putin could lose power

2015/4/1 15:21:17

< Could the Putin era end as that of Khrushchev? “In 1962 workers, from the Novocherkassk Electric Locomotive Works (NEVZ), marched on the Communist Headquarters in Novocherkassk in protest of Khrushchev’s passing of legislation that would double the prices for meat and dairy products…When the protesters refused to disperse and heed the Soviet Army’s request one of the generals ordered his troops to fire their guns into the crowd.  The shooting resulted in 24 deaths, dozens injured, and the arrest of over 100 strikers for causing disorder and committing banditry.  Many of those charged with these crimes were exiled to Siberia.”


By Amanda Taub on Vox, March 30, 2015

 

After more than a decade in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin is struggling through what may be his most turbulent and difficult year in office. His economy is crumbling under the global collapse in oil prices; US and European economic sanctions are punishing his inner circle and most powerful state institutions. His military is still occupying Crimea, and there is little prospect that the shaky cease-fire in eastern Ukraine will produce a long-term solution to the conflict. The murder of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, just steps from the Kremlin, was a global scandal that embarrassed the regime and prompted massive marches of protest and mourning around the country.

 

Putin's rule has been secure since he took office in 2000. At some point, though, his problems will become severe enough that the stability of his hold on power will become a live question.

 

In January, I spoke about Putin's hold on office with Mark Galeotti, a professor at NYU's Center For Global Affairs who has been studying Russian politics for decades. The real question for Putin, he explained, is the loyalty of a few key groups keeping him in power — and what might cause those groups to abandon him. He also explained why he thinks 2016 might be the year Putin's regime finally starts to crumble.

 

I got in touch with Galeotti again recently to see if his views had changed after Putin's mysterious disappearance earlier this month. He told me they hadn't, and gave me his thoughts on what Putin's vanishing act says about the state of politics in Russia. His new comments have been added below. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

 

Amanda Taub: You've previously described Putin's power in Russia as stable but brittle, meaning it's currently strong but would have little resiliency in the face of major economic shocks or other crises. What type of shock would be likely to pose a threat to Putin?

 

Mark Galeotti It's always going to be the unexpected shock, so to that extent it's going to be unpredictable.

 

But let's say there's a bank collapse that can't be bailed out, or something like a health scare. Life tends to throw these kinds of events at all political systems, so it's really about the resilience they've managed to build up. My particular concern would be that they are burning away the political and social and economic capital that gives them that resilience.

 

AT How might that kind of crisis cause Putin to lose power? What does the process look like?

 

MG It would be a sense among the elites that he was no longer an asset but a danger.

 

The best parallel would be the ouster of [Soviet Premier Nikita] Khrushchev in the Soviet era [in 1964]. He came to power on the basis of an elite consensus that he could run the country in their interests, but then he became increasingly erratic. He got the Soviet Union involved in the Cuban missile crisis, and made a whole bunch of bad decisions that impacted the Soviet economy.

 

So the elite decided this guy was not what they were looking for — and he had to go. They basically said to Khrushchev, You're stepping down for reasons of your health, and there was nothing he could do about it.

 

2016 IS GOING TO BE THE CRUNCH YEAR

 

That, I think, is the most likely circumstance for Putin's departure. It's not that he'll lose an election — it's that a bunch of men in gray suits are going to file into his office and say, Vladimir Vladimirovich, it's time for you to do your last service to the state, and that's to retire.

 

Or he may be off at his dacha and see on the television that he's just stepped down for reasons of ill health. And he'll pick up his red phone, and find that the people answering it will no longer take orders from him.

 

AT Do you think that will be triggered by a specific event

 

MG It's often been the random chances that shape this.

 

One of the key things that led to Khrushchev's ousting was riots that took place in a town called Novocherkassk. It was a backwater, not at all a significant place. But by bad luck, on the same day they announced an increase in food prices, they also announced a cut in wages at the massive local factory where most people worked. That led to street protests. The police refused to disperse them. And eventually the army was called out, and some of the army officers refused to fire on the protesters. In due course they had to send in security troops, who had no qualms, and there was a massacre.

 

For complete text of the commentary, link below:

http://www.vox.com/2015/1/5/7482441/how-putin-lose-power

 

Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the “Novocherkassk massacre” and the impact it had on USSR and world history, link below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novocherkassk_massacre

https://libcom.org/library/1962-novocherkassk-tragedy

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