Ash: EC head confirms $15 billion hole in Ukraine’s boat

2014/12/17 12:15:01

What began as a figure floated in a press report a few days ago has now been confirmed by EC President Jean-Claude Juncker. Tim Ash says he believes “the West will try and stall committing firm cash numbers until this donor conference which is being planned for February.”

 

< Photo: EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LONDON, Dec 17, 2014 (UBO) – Standard Bank economist Timothy Ash said at 11:10 today that the USD $15 billion that was floated last week as additional bail-out Ukraine needs may come but “very late”. Ash’s latest comments were as follows:

 

This USD15bn, quoted originally in the FT report last week, seems to be shaping up as the ball park figure of the required level of IMF support for Ukraine.

 

The next IMF mission is expected to come back on January 19, and my best guess still is that the West will try and stall committing firm cash numbers until this donor conference which is being planned for February. That still seems very late in my mind,

 

The EU I think is being asked for EU2-3bn in new credits, but this appears as a very big number for the EU to deliver given that Ukraine is not an EU or candidate member state. It would also amount to around 2% of the overall EU budget, which is again a big ask, and not that dis-similar to disbursements to existing smaller EU states.

 

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The Ash commentary above represents a personal view, is not investment advice or Standard Bank research, but may contain extracts from published research.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

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