Russian and Ukrainian sides fail to disarm

2014/4/22 12:29:10

Analyst: “The weekend’s events prove that the Russian Federation is moving full steam ahead with its plan to federalize southeastern Ukraine, and possibly annex certain regions. The only way these referenda can be held is under the presence of Russian soldiers. So with May 11 set for the Luhansk referendum, we can expect Russian soldiers to be dispatched to the oblast by then.”

 


KYIV, Apr 22, 2014 (UBO) - Pro-Russian separatists failed to disarm and release state buildings this weekend as Russian and Ukrainian diplomats accused each other of failing to uphold the Geneva Accords of April17, Concorde Capital told clients in an online advisory today that continues below.

 

Separatists occupying the Donetsk Oblast State Administration said they won’t free the building until the “illegal” government in Kyiv resigns and the Maidan activists in central Kyiv disband themselves, the BBC reported on April 18. They demanded the liquidation of the National Guard, which is the Ukrainian government’s national volunteer force. They also demanded the release of their activists from prison and a referendum to determine some form of autonomy for the region.

 

The Russian Foreign Ministry demanded on April 18 that Ukraine’s Right Sector paramilitary forces disarm themselves and free the sites they control in central and western Ukraine. It also called on the Kyiv government to engage in a dialogue with the residents of southeastern Ukraine, including on language and constitutional reform. The next day, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reminded Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a telephone call of the obligations the Russian government has to assist in disarming the separatists and freeing state buildings, the 5 Kanal television network reported, citing the U.S. State Department. Kerry called Lavrov again on April 21 to repeat his requests for armed separatists to vacate state buildings after they blocked international monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported on April 21 that Sloviansk is under the control of armed groups.

 

Pro-Russian separatists in the east Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv declared the election of people’s governors this weekend by the raising of hands. The Luhansk governor, Valery Bolotov, declared on April 21 the formation of an oblast army to include existing divisions and volunteers. The prior day, he was elected to serve as commander of a so-called “southeastern army.” He claimed his oblast government will also organize the local courts and police. A few thousand protesters gathered at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) headquarters in Luhansk to demand a referendum on May 11 to create a Luhansk People’s Republic. The referendum will ask voters whether they support the republic merging with the Russian Federation.

 

In Horlivka in the Donetsk Oblast, pro-Russian separatists also declared their intention on April 21 to organize a referendum as well as create a federation of republics to be created from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Odesa oblasts, reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site. Artem Olkhin, who said he is authorized by the Donetsk People’s Republic to conduct the referendum, said an agreement will be signed next week between the Donetsk and Kharkiv People’s Republics. In Kharkiv, the people’s governor also called for holding a referendum.

 

Violence continued this weekend in Donetsk Oblast cities. Three people were killed and three were injured in an armed conflict on April 20 at a checkpoint established by pro-Russian separatists outside the city of Sloviansk. Armed fighters dressed in camouflage took over the police headquarters in Kramatorsk on April 21. Four of six armed personnel carriers that remain captured by the pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk Oblast will be returned to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, the Defense Ministry reported on April 19. Separatists in Sloviansk also return three kidnapped foreign journalists: two from Italy and one from Belarus.

 

The interim Ukrainian government announced on April 18 it is willing to offer southeastern Ukraine’s regions financial and economic autonomy, as well as official status for the Russian language. It also offered amnesty for separatists in exchange for surrendering arms and freeing buildings. The autonomy measures would involve liquidating the state oblast and district administrations, which are the local representative organs of the Presidential Administration, said Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. The government is willing to amend the budget and tax codes to offer the appropriate financial resources to each Ukrainian region.

 

The federalization in Ukraine being planned by the Russian government resembles the model of Bosnia-Herzegovina more than the U.S., said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in an interview published in the Washington Post on April 20. Its goal is to destabilize Ukraine and its economic reforms and undermine the May 25 election and EU integration. “Russian wants to have influence on separate parts of the country, which later paralyzes its integrity,” he said.

 

Zenon Zawada: The weekend’s events prove that the Russian Federation is moving full steam ahead with its plan to federalize southeastern Ukraine, and possibly annex certain regions. The only way these referenda can be held is under the presence of Russian soldiers. So with May 11 set for the Luhansk referendum, we can expect Russian soldiers to be dispatched to the oblast by then. It’s no coincidence that this referendum date coincides with the May 9 Victory Day holiday, which will be exploited by the Russian government to encourage east Ukraine residents to support separatism against “fascism” that it alleges to have taken over Ukraine.

 

Polls confirm that about two-thirds on the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts support remaining in a unitary Ukrainian state, while only a fifth support joining Russia. Given that the majority of residents in these oblasts won’t support the referenda, we support the Ukrainian government’s use of restraint in dealing with the separatists, even if it is portrayed as weak by certain political and media observers. The Ukrainian government will have to use force, however, once Russian soldiers and tanks enter eastern Ukraine to enforce the referenda. We expect that will happen as the May 9 holiday approaches.

 

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