Analyst: We don’t expect to see a convincing downward inflationary trend until 2H18. According to our projections, CPI will increase 8.9% YTD, or 11.8% yoy in 2018.
KYIV, Apr 11, 2018 - Ukraine’s consumer prices grew 1.1 mm in March, speeding up from 0.9% mm growth in the prior month, Concorde Capital informed clients based on a State Statistics Service report on April 10. Meanwhile, yearly inflation slowed down to 13.2% yoy from 14.0% yoy in February. Food prices increased 1.1% mm, keeping the same growth rate as in the prior month. Prices for clothing and footwear jumped 9.6% mm from a decline of 2.8% mm in February. After being a significant inflationary factor in January-February, transportation prices declined 0.7% mm (from a growth of 1.5% mm in February and 3.0% mm in January). Utility prices increased 0.3% mm, slightly slowing down from 0.4% mm in February. Core inflation (the consumer basket excluding goods and services with the most volatile prices) accelerated to 1.4% mm growth (9.4% yoy) from 0.6% mm (9.7% yoy) in February. Concorde analyst Evgeniya Akhtyrko added: “A jump in clothing and footwear prices related to the seasonal change of collection by retailers outweighed the disinflationary effect of transportation prices. The March acceleration of core inflation implies that non-monetary factors remain significant in current inflationary trends. The slowdown in yearly inflation to 13.2% yoy means that Ukraine’s central bank is not likely to hike further its key policy rate at its upcoming meeting on April 12, leaving it at 17.0%. We don’t expect to see a convincing downward inflationary trend until 2H18. According to our projections, CPI will increase 8.9% YTD, or 11.8% yoy in 2018. ### For more information, link here: www.concorde.ua
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