The purchase and transport of 700,000 tons of mostly Pennsylvania coal to Ukraine is seen as a lifeline for a U.S. presidential administration desperate for positive news in the face of its health care legislation defeat and failure to move on any other legislative front.


Ukraine's national postal service has suffered a 48-hour-long DDoS attack to its website

Manafort has been a subject of a longstanding FBI investigation into his dealings in Ukraine and work for that country's former president, Viktor Yanukovych. Special Counsel Robert Mueller is also investigating Manafort as part of his probe into Russia's meddling in the 2016 election and any possible collusion with Trump associates.

Analyst: “We predicted this development and therefore we are keeping our 2017 CPI forecast unchanged at 11.8% YTD growth (14.0% yoy).”


Analyst: “Ukraine’s reserves will resume growth after the next IMF tranche is approved. We expect USD 1.0 bln to arrive this fall, another USD 0.5 bln from a sovereign international Eurobond placement, and USD 0.5-0.8 bln to be raised from local Eurobonds. This should underpin gross reserves rising to USD 18.5 bln by end-2017.”


Two Ukrainian Donbas Battalion volunteers at their frontline post, Summer 2017.


(Photo credit: Seth J. Frantzman)

The evidence suggests that Russia is getting impatient to find a new mechanism to replace the Minsk process.  There is wide consensus that Minsk is dead but no agreement yet on another vehicle to move the situation in a positive direction acceptable to Ukraine.

Tim Ash: Update on Ukraine 2017/8/4 11:17:04

Ash: “Net-net the macro looks okay for the time–being, and this stability is another reason why early elections might just be tempting for Poroshenko.”

Analyst: “With these latest chapters of his controversial presidency, Poroshenko continues to pursue his policy of doing the bare minimum to satisfy the demands of Western institutions for reform and fighting corruption.”


Analyst: “It’s worth noting that the Russian-oriented electorate has risen from previous polls to over 16% with the emergence of the For Life party (compared to 41.9% for pro-Western parties).”


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