“Tymoshenko’s poll ratings have consistently improved, particularly at the expense of President Poroshenko. Grytsenko’s ratings also have consistently improved.”

Analyst: “As we earlier expected, Gazprom will do its best to postpone the award payment, including such appeals. At the same time, we expect the Russian monopoly will eventually have to pay, but it will try to avoid paying in cash or any other liquid asset.”

 

Analyst: “Our current projection for the 2018 goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) is USD 7.0 bln (vs. USD 6.3 bln in 2017).”

 

“…the situation is complicated by the interference in this difficult process on the part of the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian state.”

 

 

Analyst: “The higher interest rates for longer UAH-denominated local bonds likely points to a government attempt to shift market demand away from 3M and 6M bonds, which enjoy the most demand currently.”

 

“I am sure that next year, we will be witnesses to the first cases of this court [High Anti-Corruption Court],” Parubiy said. “And believe me, this will be verdicts that all of Ukraine will be proud of. These will be verdicts that will change our country.”

 

Analyst: Murayev's provocative comments merely add to the destabilizing factors, though we don’t expect him to be prosecuted because he is too useful politically for the Poroshenko administration.”

 

Analyst: The disinflation process is very likely to continue through the summer due to increased food supply amid an expectedly good harvest. According to our projections, CPI will increase 8.9% YTD, or 11.8% yoy in 2018.

Analyst: “…we remain optimistic about the IMF staff determining the legislation to be acceptable. We also expect that the other remaining demands - a natural gas price hike and balanced budget - will be resolved on Ukraine’s way to pass the next IMF staff review and get up to a USD 2 bln tranche this summer.”

 

“…a senior Moscow military analyst Pavel Ivanov…says that the Russian fleet as of now has “complete rule on the Sea of Azov” and can “support military landings on many places on the [Ukrainian] littoral” …And that includes, he continues, the important ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol.”

 

Photo: Ukrainian Navy craft on patrol

 

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