Analyst: “Higher assumed coal costs will increase the average electricity rate of thermal power plants next year by about 18% yoy, we estimate based on the announced parameters. That should more than cover cost inflation for DTEK Energy next year (DTEKUA).”


The day’s best news came on the LSE where Ukraine’s most widely held stock, Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) climbed 0.2% extending its winning streak to 4.9% in four straight positive sessions.


In the report below, Jack Scoville, a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar, presents his comments and supporting charts covering almost all facets of international commodity trading.

Analyst: “All this promises little positive for the Ukrainian government, whose costs of the Privatbank bailout may increase by up to an additional UAH 29.4 bln in the mid-term.”

In January-October 2017, Ukraine exported 33.81 thousand tons of fresh and frozen cattle meat for the amount of USD 94.01 million. 


Romania not only increases its share in EU production but also manages to lead rapeseed exporters in Europe. Ukraine has a strong production increase over the previous year but remains far behind Romania 

“As before, the key export destinations for Ukrainian sunoil in the new 2017/18 season are India (39% of total exports), EU countries (28%) and China (20%); their purchases follow an upward trend.”


KSG Agro (KSG PW) was up 16.8% for the day in Warsaw while Ferrexpo continued its slide on the LSE, down 1.0% for the day – down 5.9% over three sessions.


Analyst: “Ovostar’s 9M17 results were in line with our expectations of a USD 60.0 mln top line and USD 12.1 mln EBITDA… we retain our neutral view on Ovostar stock, which trades at the highest multiple in the Ukrainian universe (about 8.0x trailing EV/EBITDA).”

Analyst: “We continue to expect Metinvest will produce about 31.7 mmt of attributable iron ore in 2017, a 5.2% yoy decrease. And we are also keeping our neutral view on METINV Eurobonds as we see a high refinancing risk for the next twelve months.”


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