Analyst: “We don’t expect any success at a ceasefire in Donbas until a UN peacekeeping mission is agreed upon. And we don’t expect a UN peacekeeping mission to be agreed upon in the next two years.”


The conflict in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions has killed more than 10,300 people since it erupted in April 2014, after Russia fomented unrest across much of Ukraine following the ouster of Moscow-friendly President Viktor Yanukovych.


Photo: Ukrainian servicemen ride atop armored vehicles on the outskirts of Donetsk.


Analyst: “Hopefully, improved economic growth in the following months will boost revenues and prevent the government from resorting to bad practices.”


Analyst: “The crackdown only heightens the tensions between the current government and the pro-Western opposition, which will only intensify as elections draw nearer. The conflict has the potential to destabilize the situation in the country further.”


The camp was an offshoot of a broader opposition movement that holds regular peaceful protests in Kyiv to demand the resignation of Poroshenko over stalled reforms. 


Analyst: “…the Ukrainian government has a lot to do in order to secure loan tranches from the IMF (up to USD 2 bln) and the EU (at least EUR 600 mln) this year. So far, our base-case scenario is Ukraine will be able to receive these tranches in mid-2018.”

Analyst: “…we argue that the [High Anti-Corruption] Court’s creation is more important than next year’s elections since most of the candidates represent the current system and are unlikely to change it, which would mean another five years of stagnation.”


Analyst: “…we still hold the view that he [Poroshenko] deeply fears the possibility of his most intense rival succeeding him and her possibly allowing prosecutors to investigate him. And we still believe the elections could get chaotic.”


Alex van der Zwaan, a London-based attorney pleads guilty to lying to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators and FBI agents about his contacts with a former Trump campaign associate and another person about his work relating to Ukrainian politician Yulia Tymoshenko.


Photo: Alex Van der Zwaan (tv screen shot)


Photo: Former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort


As the special counsel investigated President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort, authorities obtained details on “suspicious” banking activity that was first unearthed in 2014 and 2015. Those records were part of an FBI operation to track an international kleptocracy that ultimately failed, but which Robert Mueller’s team resurrected.


Editor’s Note: UBO believes a second round on indictments will come in the near future and will center on Paul Manafort, his long-time business partner Rick Gates (who reportedly has just made a deal to lighten his own sentence by telling all he knows about the “international kleptocracy;” i.e. Viktor Yanukovych and Ukraine’s Party of Regions) and will reveal facts that have an immense impact on U.S. Congressional elections in November this year and Ukrainian presidential elections in 2019.


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