“…this Russia bail-out still raises far more questions than it answers, is unlikely to address the underlying problems, and likely just stores up yet more problems for the future.”

Analyst: “Without knowing any potential concessions the Ukrainian side made in Moscow yesterday (we believe there must have been some), we understand that late 2015 can become a period when Ukraine may have to choose between default or signing up for the Eurasian Economic Union led by Moscow.”

 

“As the protests in Ukraine have gathered force, they've also drawn support from other Christian denominations, including the Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate. There, too, Christians of different backgrounds find themselves in the same boat.”

Analyst: “So far, it’s not clear what the Ukrainian side has offered for such a concession from Gazprom, which is a very disturbing aspect of these Russian-Ukrainian deals. Recall that in 2010, Ukraine extended the lease of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by a quarter century from 2017 to 2042, just for a USD 100/tcm gas discount. The most obvious concession that Ukraine might have offered to Gazprom is to increase gas purchase volumes by 20-30%. That would nearly entirely offset the positive effect of the gas discount on Ukraine’s trade balance.”

“…it is Putin’s anti-gay crusade which is the most obviously self-destructive and the most comparable to some of the missteps Nicholas II made. Launching this effort in advance of the Olympics shows, Akhmetov says, that once again Russia as Chernomyrdin put it “wanted something better but it turned out like always.” The Olympic movement both in antiquity and in modern times has many links to homosexuality.  In classical Greece, Akhmetov says, it was a celebration of male beauty; and its modern reviver, Pierre de Coubertin, was a homosexual. That makes the timing of Putin’s move counterproductive internationally, as even Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has suggested.”

 

“…we interpret the company’s move as the beginning of its expansion to central Asian countries, which may be welcomed by the stock market.”

 

Ash: “I guess under the take or pay agreement they could buy 42bcm at 268.5, then re-export the extra 10-11bcm to Europe and pocket the difference, i.e. USD1.65bn, taking the total saving back up to USD4.9bn. However, historically Russia has hated such action by Ukraine, so I doubt they are going to buy into that.”

Stratfor Global Intelligence yesterday reposted an op-ed by its chief editor George Friedman, whose family came from Uzhgorod in far western Ukraine, with the comment: “The following Geopolitical Weekly originally ran in November 2010 as part of our Geopolitical Journey series. We repost it as Ukraine's position between Europe and Russia puts it in the spotlight.”

 

In other news, four miners were killed in an accident at Coal Energy’s Sviato-Pokrovska mine on Dec. 16.

“Commitments will have been made one way or another - whether verbal or in writing. I would expect that we will discover at a later date that either strategic assets (e.g. the gas transit system) or commitments towards Ukrainian membership of the CIS CU will have been made - likely after the presidential election in 2015, upon Yanukovych's victory and when Putin’s Eurasian Union is set to be launched. And one thing is certain, President Putin makes a big thing of always delivering on his promises, and he expects everyone else to do the same to him. Yanukovych is unlikely to want to go back on his word to Putin this time around.”

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